As the impact of climate change becomes increasingly evident, the urgency of decarbonization is no longer a matter of debate, but a strategic imperative for businesses aiming not only to meet sustainability commitments but also to thrive in an uncertain future. Wondering what lies ahead? Dive into the top 10 trends that will define decarbonization towards 2030.
In this report, you will find information on our environmental, social, and economic impacts throughout 2023. It includes details of our efforts in areas such as reducing carbon emissions, ensuring fair labor practices, focusing on training and development, and promoting sustainable business practices throughout the organization.
In our latest foresight study on decarbonization, we identified the most significant trends across the STEEP framework, which covers five key areas: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political. With the help of strategic foresight methods ranging from desk research to expert interviews, we conducted a thorough analysis, identifying 25 key trends.
Read up on the 10 most impactful trends below or explore the complete list – and more – in our study.
Download the full Decarbonization foresight study here.
Top 10 Decarbonization Trends
In light of an ongoing global shift towards sustainability and resilience, the following trends may significantly impact how the future unfolds. At the same time, they help us outline the challenges and opportunities on the path to decarbonization.
1. Climate-Change-Driven Migration Upsurge
The worsening of environmental conditions is directly linked to an upsurge in migration, which emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies and support systems to accommodate those displaced by climate impacts.
2. Growing Environmental Awareness and Green Consumerism
There is a notable shift in public awareness about environmental issues, increasingly influencing consumer behavior towards sustainable products and services. Also, grassroots activities spearhead environmental protection initiatives, including local conservation efforts, community gardening, and neighborhood sustainability projects.
3. Renewable Energy Advancements
A rapid transition is occurring in energy systems globally, with a shift towards renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydropower. This movement is driven by technological advancements, increasing affordability, and a growing emphasis on sustainability.
4. AI in Environmental and Climate Solutions
Artificial intelligence is increasingly being leveraged for environmental monitoring and climate change responses. AI’s data processing capabilities are crucial for predicting weather patterns, assessing environmental damage, and optimizing resource use.
5. Evolution of Carbon Trading Ecosystem
The carbon trading market is advancing and growing in both sophistication and influence. This encompasses the broadening scope of carbon credit systems, the development of emissions trading schemes, and the escalating significance of carbon pricing in shaping both corporate and national climate strategies.
6. Rising Demand for Supply Chain Transparency
Shareholders, employees, and customers alike increasingly demand accountability and transparency for sustainability claims. Organizations are facing increased scrutiny to embrace science-based targets, relying on verified reporting frameworks, to curtail carbon emissions throughout their supply chains.
A global movement to restore and protect natural ecosystems grows, with an increasing emphasis on biodiversity conservation. Habitat restoration, species protection, and sustainable land use practices are gaining traction, reflecting a commitment to ecological balance.
8. Expansion of Urban Green Spaces & Reforestation Efforts
Urban green spaces and reforestation initiatives are being expanded in response to the need for carbon sequestration and urban heat island mitigation. Urban forestry, park development, green urban planning, and the inclusion of vertical gardens in urban landscapes are becoming increasingly common.
9. Declining Influence of the Fossil Fuel Industry
The influence of the fossil fuel industry is diminishing as the world shifts towards renewable energy sources. This trend is marked by decreasing investments in fossil fuels, growing regulatory pressures, and a societal push for cleaner energy alternatives.
10. Stricter Environmental Regulations and Climate Litigation
Governments are implementing stricter environmental regulations, and there is an increase in climate-related litigation. These legal and regulatory measures aim to hold corporations and governments accountable for their environmental impact and drive more sustainable practices.
Methodology: From Trends to Future Scenarios
Our analysis doesn’t stop at trends. Once identified, they become building blocks of the so-called drivers of change. For instance, the rise in production of electric vehicles, combined with stricter environmental regulations and a rise in green incentives, make up a driver of change described as “a shift in transportation to more sustainable models.” Based on these drivers, we are able to map out sets of possible future scenarios like the ones presented in our study.
Out of the four plausible scenarios, we selected “Resilient Surge” as the subject of an in-depth analysis, as we believe it is vital in understanding the future ramifications of decisions made today. You can dive deeper into the “Resilient Surge” scenario, as well as its milestones, challenges, and implications in our Decarbonization study.
Future-proof your company strategy
Uncertainty is the name of the game when it comes to environmental and geopolitical changes, but with strategic foresight and an eagerness to understand these complex dynamics, your business can be at the forefront of green transformation. Replacing a survival mindset with resilience and determination to thrive despite and through uncertainty is crucial here. And proactively engaging with topics of global significance – such as decarbonization – is an excellent first step towards the future.
Get in touch with the Rohrbeck Heger team to find out how your organization can learn from future scenarios, stay attuned to evolving trends, and successfully navigate sustainable transitions with the help of strategic foresight.
We’re proud to announce the publication of our parent company, Creative Dock’s, first Sustainability Report. This document underscores our commitment to embedding Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles deeply within our operational framework.
Our three pillars:
Our activities at Creative Dock Berlin are built on three main pillars:
Implementation: applied foresight for growth, innovation, strategy, and organizational change
Research: scientific research and theory building to further the field, and improve the understanding of foresight and its effects
Education: university and executive education; talks and keynotes to increase awareness, knowledge, and application of foresight practices
In this report, you will find information on our environmental, social, and economic impacts throughout 2023. It includes details of our efforts in areas such as reducing carbon emissions, ensuring fair labor practices, focusing on training and development, and promoting sustainable business practices throughout the organization.
By leveraging the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI), we aim to spearhead sustainable growth and innovation using strategic foresight in the venture building landscape.
Decarbonization is reshaping the global landscape in ways that range from industrial innovations to societal transformations. Groundbreaking technological advancements and escalating extreme weather events will play a major role in shaping the way we conduct business. Developing concrete decarbonization roadmaps is a strategic imperative for companies which aim to reach their net zero targets and contribute to a more sustainable world. Our comprehensive study applies strategic foresight methodology to this complex, uncertain, and critical topic.
Here’s what you can expect to read in our report:
Top 25 Decarbonization Trends: based on the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political)
Scenario Cross: highlighting the four likely scenarios to play out the future aligning with global trends and insights from experts
Resilient Surge: Our Scenario in the form of a back-casted timeline
Actionable insights: Implications for businesses and suggested next steps
Get valuable, cross-industry insights, action points, and implications for the future of your business.
How our foresight-driven innovation approach helped match an Intralogistics company’s supply chain sustainability goals to meet their strategic decisions
Manoeuvring a dynamic business ecosystem can seem quite challenging, especially if you’re referring to the Supply Chains business. Our experts in the field of foresight, strategy, innovation and sustainability sat together with one of the multinational manufacturers of materials handling equipment within the Intralogistics industry to discuss the Future of Supply Chains.
We supported our client to drive innovation within their organization and identify future opportunities using our proven foresight-driven innovation approach.
On building strategic resilience in times of polycrisis, practicing“underground Foresight,” and expanding the Rohrbeck Heger portfolio in 2024 with a new service offering
By Bhavana Sawant
Stepping into the new year with its promises of expansive opportunities and growth, we sat down with Dr. Sebastian Knab to discuss what 2024 has in store for foresight-driven strategy and innovation.
With a tenure of over 15 years immersed in foresight, strategy, innovation and sustainability, Sebastian stands as the driving force behind the strategic foresight division at Creative Dock. Taking over the reins of Rohrbeck Heger from Dr. Tobias Heger as our new Managing Director late last year, he brings invaluable expertise and experience to the table.
In this interview, we delve into an array of topics, exploring leadership lessons, the disruptive impact of Generative AI across the company, and exclusive insight into our Foresight Community, all shared by Sebastian himself.
Let’s jump right in:
What did your experiences as Director of Foresight teach you in 2023, and what do you want to focus on in 2024?
Sebastian: In late 2022, I took on a role that required more people management than before. Responsible for a 30-member team of experts, I was surprised to see the level of skillful management required from my end. My time on projects, sales and client relationships drastically went down. This is something I had not anticipated, but I was glad to have to constantly learn and grow alongside my team. In 2024, I want to shift back to what I think my role is truly all about: coaching people and building strong client relationships.
This past year also showed me that as a leader, you really depend on a strong team to do all the things that you no longer have time for. Many tasks and projects are not under my direct control, so I’m required to rely on my team to deliver based on the limited guidance I can provide. This has worked out extremely well so far because I think (and know) that I have the best possible team!
Furthermore, I’m a person who strives for excellence all the time and I absolutely dislike it when someone, whether they are a team member or a client, is unhappy. One lesson I have had to learn is that it is nearly impossible to achieve complete satisfaction from all members when you’re leading a team of 30 people. There will be trade offs, and while I might achieve something that benefits some people, others may not be happy with it. I have learned to manage these trade-offs, to live with it, and to listen more to myself. I have to judge what is the right thing to do.
What was your main motivation behind starting your own Sustainability initiative?
Sebastian: We live in a time in which we simply cannot ignore the topic of sustainable development in business. Quite the opposite! Everybody needs to think about how we can achieve it or at least how we can contribute towards it. You cannot stand in front of a burning house and think about how to make the internet connection in the house better going forward. You really need to think about how to get the fire out or how you can contribute to putting it out.
I think with what we do at Rohrbeck Heger and Creative Dock, we are really in an excellent position to make a difference, advising the largest global companies on strategy and innovation. That’s why I pushed the topic of sustainability in the first place. Sustainability Fridays is an initiative to increase awareness of and knowledge around sustainable development applied to business. It is a monthly event for the entire company where we invite an external expert for a keynote and Q&A session for an hour over lunch on Fridays.
I realized that knowledge and awareness across the company is key to driving this topic in everything we do. We are doing a lot of creative work, envisioning and creating the future. As everyone becomes more knowledgeable about sustainable development, is made more aware of its importance, and has the right tools at hand to drive it forward, it will seamlessly become a part of our work and influence it positively.
Foresight constantly deals with uncertainty. How do you plan for it and effectively help organizations tackle it?
Sebastian: Yes, that’s exactly what foresight essentially does – manage uncertainty. My favorite example here is a project we did with a large airline network before the COVID-19 Crisis. In this case, we built scenarios in collaboration with our client, based on multiple plausible futures. One of these scenarios detailed implications of “grounded flights”, due to changes in environmental regulations. While it was initially considered an unlikely scenario by our client, it turned into reality during the pandemic. The scenario went up to board level, helping them navigate the COVID-19 crisis. Although the reason for the crisis was different, the scenario we developed helped them prepare for what was to come.
Rohrbeck Heger is developing a new service offering around AI. What can you share about it?
Yes, one of Creative Dock’s strategic pillars is jumping all-in on incorporating and leveraging AI. This is a smart strategic move as it builds on our existing capabilities in that area and makes it clear that we will not only go with the flow but lead the development. We now offer Artificial Intelligence Transformation as our newest expert capability and service. For my team, this means that we will be top notch in AI for Foresight, leveraging the latest developments in the area and implementing everything AI can offer into our work – something we are already very good at.
On top of this, my team has been assigned the task to develop the whole Creative Dock AI Transformation offering and we have a pretty solid end-to-end offering already.
Essentially, it consists of three pillars:
– AI foresight, strategy, and innovation planning: This is at the heart of what my team has always done, but now we’re leveraging AI and gearing our work specifically towards AI. This piece will be crucial in 2024. Last year, we saw a lot of companies that just “wanted to do something” with AI, but now realize that they need a more strategic approach. They seek priorities and focus to really leverage the value of AI.
– AI technological competency: Creative Dock’s AI and data scientist teams are extremely well prepared for the hands-on, tool-building aspect.
– Implementation and change management: One thing we learned in our AI Transformation Projects this year is that the bulk of the work is not technical, but change management. It doesn’t matter if it’s automation, AI or any other transformation – you need to master the art of change management. You can read about the Future of Generative AI in our detailed report here. Dive into our progressive scenario that imagines the world in 2026, explore 30 critical Generative AI trends to monitor, and get inspired by 40 emerging business opportunities all in one comprehensive foresight study.
What can we expect and look forward to in 2024?
Sebastian: I am looking forward to three things:
– The need for Foresight will further increase exponentially. We are living in an age defined by polycrises. Uncertainty is growing steadily and it’s here to stay. We have seen this in the past year and it will only continue. Dealing with, managing, and even benefiting from uncertainty is at the heart of what we do in Foresight. I believe that soon, no organization will be able to conduct meaningful strategy and innovation work without doing it with a foresight-based approach.
– Developments in AI will accelerate and turn many things upside-down. We are extremely well positioned to take a leading role here. Creative Dock is an AI-obsessed company, we are top notch in AI for Foresight, strategy and innovation work, and we have a strong end-to-end AI Transformation offering for our clients.
– We will push the sustainability topic even more in 2024. We had an exciting and successful sustainability strategy and innovation project with one of the largest global food and beverage companies in 2023. We are on course to publish a foresight study on decarbonization soon, and with AI transformation we have learned a lot about building new offerings for transformative topics including sustainability. We will have someone in the team explicitly driving this topic, and everyone is quite excited about it.
What advice would you give aspiring foresight consultants and analysts?
Sebastian: My advice is not new but still valid – if you want to become an excellent Foresight consultant you need to learn about application areas such as strategy and innovation, how to become a trusted advisor to clients, how dynamics in large organizations function, and how to manage stakeholders. I’ve seen many futurists and foresight experts in my career who know everything about foresight methodology but then fail to have a significant impact, because methodology alone doesn’t create impact. You need additional skills to make Foresight work. This is what we do at Rohrbeck Heger and what every aspiring consultant and analyst in my team should strive for.
What are some developments in strategy and innovation that you’re excited about in 2024? What topics do people need to keep on their radar?
Sebastian: I would say there are these four topics: Make Foresight Work, Integrate Foresight into all strategy and innovation work, Embrace AI, and Drive Sustainability.
The latter is still underestimated. I say it every year at this time, but it’s truer than ever. With burning topics such as geopolitical crises and now AI flying in, organizations get distracted from the sustainability topic all the time, only to later realize that it’s still there and more urgent than ever. I’m excited about these pressing topics and really looking forward to working on them, whilst driving change and leveraging the opportunities that come with it.
And last but in no way the least, can you share information about Rohrbeck Heger’s exclusive foresight community?
Sebastian: Our Foresight Community is one for Foresighters by Foresighters. The Foresight That Works event that we hosted in September 2023 at our Berlin office was great in many ways. Over the past years we’ve seen Foresight becoming more important in companies across the board. Jobs with an explicit Foresight mandate have emerged out of strategy and innovation functions and even entire Foresight teams have been set up. Foresight is professionalizing but Foresight professionals are still somewhat unique in their organizations. We know many Foresight professionals who are the first generation in their companies. There is a strong desire to connect across companies and industries, to share best practices, and to support each other. This is what we are trying to facilitate with our community.
There are some challenges that everyone seems to share but also fascinating solutions to these challenges. Some foresight experts are already practicing:
– Varying priority of foresight One of the participants shared the notion of “underground foresight,” so whenever foresight got deprioritized, this foresighter continued to work on it below the radar only to be prepared for when it picked up again. With this approach they were ready when Foresight finally became fully established as a corporate function. This foresighter is now heading the team.
– Moving from one-time foresight exercises to continuous foresight This seems to be the name of the game now. After successful trials, companies now want the process to be systematically built into their routines. At Rohrbeck Heger, we streamline foresight adoption in a few efficient and effective steps including showcasing value via pilot sprints, customizing playbooks within existing processes, strategizing for engagement, occasionally introducing software, and seamlessly integrating foresight into strategy and innovation processes for tangible, direct benefits. These proven strategies engage our community in thought-provoking and future-oriented conversations.
Finally, do you have any extra positive or motivating words to share?
Sebastian: Looking back at 2023, it was not a particularly easy year with lots of work still going into properly integrating into the Creative Dock Group and serving clients with sometimes tight budgets. However, as a team we reached all of our goals and mastered all of the challenges we faced. My team is extremely motivated and just such great people to work with, also on a personal level, that I think whatever we want to achieve, we can do it.
Your contact at Rohrbeck Heger: Dr.Sebastian Knab Managing Director at Rohrbeck Heger sknab@rohrbeckheger.com LinkedIn
Delve into our foresight-driven approach of exploring the Future of Travel 2030, with new, beyond-the-core business opportunities for Amadeus – the leading global travel technology company, and Nexwave, their business incubation unit.
With uncertainties constantly affecting the way we travel, we believe innovation is the way forward. Our team of expert consultants in the fields of innovation, foresight, and strategy, set out to work in open collaboration with experts from Amadeus Nexwave to explore trends-led business opportunities for the Future of Travel toward 2030.
Ever wondered what our foresight-driven innovation process looks like at Rohrbeck Heger? This case study will help you get a clear understanding of how industry experts and our experienced consultants worked together in proximity to achieve better travel for everyone, everywhere.
Here, you can expect to find:
The challengeposed to us
The key objective of our project
Our approach, using foresight tools and proven strategies
Dive into a progressive scenario that imagines the world in 2026, explore 30 critical Generative AI trends to monitor, and get inspired by 40 emerging business opportunities.
This cross-industry analysis applies strategic foresight methodology to one of the most complex and uncertain topics facing strategy and innovation professionals today: Generative AI.
We compiled this report for businesses to grasp the future potential of Generative AI, and to understand how this impressive technology will impact our day-to-day. There’s so much more we all can and need to learn about this explorative field of technology. Delve right into our extensive report written by experts in strategic foresight and venture building.
Here’s what you can expect to read in our report: 📌 a progressive scenario that paints a vivid picture of the world in 2026 📌 30 critical trends to stay ahead of 📌 40 emerging business opportunities to inspire you
A new era in foresight: our report details how AI applications are changing the game.
This report is based on takeaways from our 2022 AI-Enabled Tech Foresight Summit, a 2-day event of workshops and keynotes for 60 select foresight professionals and futurists.
In our era of continued disruption, a hybrid approach that combines both human and AI-powered foresight will enable ever-more sophisticated strategic periphery scanning, as well as sharper decision-making.
Produced in partnership with the EDHEC Chair for Foresight, Innovation & Transformation, as well as innovation SaaS company Itonics, this report explores:
Why organizations must embrace complexity
What sixty foresight professionals and futurists discussed and concluded during a 2-day summit
How organizations can prepare for disruption with the help of strategic foresight, bolstered by AI
How AI may impact strategic foresight practice in the next 2-3 years
A hybrid-intelligence approach for AI and strategic foresight
AI tools for foresight on the Gartner Hype Cycle
The barriers to broader AI adoption within organizations
What foresight professionals can do to support their clients in preparing their clients to weather disruptive events and navigate their inherent threats and opportunities.
In conversion with Bram Roosens, our innovation and foresight expert on what’s set to impact business this year
By Emily Phillips
Dr. Bram Roosens is a Senior Consultant at Rohrbeck Heger, specializing in Foresight-Driven Innovation projects. His work often takes him on location to collaborate directly with clients, working closely with their teams for longer periods of time. Read on to learn more about what it’s like to develop moonshots for a multinational, the importance of stakeholder engagement, and which emerging trend clients should focus on, next.
Tell us about the projects you’ve worked on this past year.
Bram: I’ve been working with a global Fortune 500 company on a 10-year plan for their R&D center. We call it a moonshot program, working on what would be very long-term innovation opportunity areas, thinking about breakthrough technologies and radical solutions to the future’s problems. We mainly focus on opportunity areas where we don’t yet know how we’d be able to realize a proposed solution. These are innovations that from today’s POV, it’s not even clear how to implement them! But together with the client we’ve identified their ambition to move into that space over the next 10 years.
What’s been most interesting was enabling a mindset shift. This company was working from a quite short-term oriented perspective, and with good reason: historically, their industry has been quite stable with well-established supply chains and steady demand from consumers. But today, an interesting mix of STEEP factors is driving change in the industry. That’s where they needed the foresight perspective, dealing with the uncertainty of the future for their business model. We’ve really brought a long-term perspective to the company, working together with a great and super dedicated team from their side.
You’re looking 10 years out and developing moonshots for things that don’t even exist, yet! How do you keep your mindset so far in the future, and not “fall back” to what’s possible, now?
It’s never easy, but we made it very clear from the start that this was our ambition. The client organization already went through a similar approach the year prior and had tried to come up with these ideas. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t manage to look beyond a 3-5 year horizon. That was an interesting position for us to be in because there was quite some pressure; the client was giving it another try, so you want to make sure that it lands! On the other hand, it made the client very open for us to push them and say, “okay, this is the ambition, let’s think really far ahead.”
We started off with letting them think very, very creatively, 20-30 years into the future. How will we consume in 2050? We had several training sessions on nonlinear thinking and radical innovation. The scenario-based approach really helped there, too, so that step by step, the client imagined alternative plausible futures. By encouraging different stakeholders to join in scenario development, you really saw that people started owning the scenarios. They started mentioning the scenarios all the time! So much so that in workshops, when we almost forgot about a scenario, they would remind us! By creating scenarios with people from the organization, these scenarios become part of the organization and people tend to think way more creatively throughout the process.
You mentioned the relationships with the client’s internal team that you were able to build, and the stakeholder engagement and internal knowledge you were able to leverage. Can you share more about that experience?
Bram: As a whole, Rohrbeck Heger commits to co-creating a process with clients. This is super important for the simple reason that every organization is different. You can only know how things are done when you talk to people and work together with people within the organization, trying to join meetings with their internal stakeholders, listening in and working to understand: what’s being talked about? What concerns do senior leadership have?
We aim to take all that into account when going into a process like this, being very flexible and adapting to the client’s needs. For example, one of the reasons that their first experience with foresight didn’t go very well was that people were only familiar with the short-term strategy. So what we did was say, “okay, let’s schedule insight sessions with their long term strategy team.” The corporate strategy team, who is also working on a 10-year plan, should provide input, as should the sustainability team, the legal team. All of these actors can provide their outlook on the future. And by doing so we got buy-in from these stakeholders because they were involved from early on in our process. Stakeholder management is critical.
By doing all of this, as an external, you also get to know the organization really well. This means that you’re better able to advise, as you learn about how the organization works and adapt/change your process based on what you see happening. For example we knew that most of the client’s processes and targets erred towards the short term. We started talking with people, asking: where did it go wrong? Why hadn’t you come up with really crazy ideas? Once we understood this, we could, for example, add more training initiatives to get people into a longer-term/future-focussed mindset.
You worked on another big project this year, what can you share about that one?
Bram: The other big project is with a second global Fortune 500 company. With this client, we’ve been working on embedding systematic foresight capabilities within the organization. We built a concept for them back in 2021 and since then have been ramping up foresight practices in the company, focussing on implementing a systematic approach. We see that a lot of great foresight and market research is done in big corporates, leading to an abundance of ‘new’ input every year. But it’s often already focused on and limited to specific search fields and areas that they’re interested in. They might produce a great trend report based on this, and share that throughout the organization. But what we try to do is to make sure that we capture all these trends on a continuous basis. For that we implemented a trend radar, and began using that radar as the basis for foresight processes. Then you have a good basis to start from, you can use the filter and radar functions to define key focus areas, and then deep dive into these specific projects.
Then we analyzed the innovation portfolio compared to the trends we had identified. We reviewed this with senior leadership and key stakeholders, and together identified what the client now understands to be the most impactful trends for their business, trying to figure out: “what are trends that are impactful, but that are not reflected in our innovation portfolio?” This is how we identify certain areas that require more strategic focus.
At this juncture we start the process of opportunity identification. We did a workshop series with key internal stakeholders. The opportunity areas that came out of that sprint were not only invented there, some of them were things that people were already thinking about from different directions. This process, however, validates them and there are opportunity and innovation areas that are now moving on into real, big potential innovation project ventures. Some of these were even presented to the CEO just last week! So that is quite nice to see. And we will continue to work with this client, which makes me quite proud because I can say that we are a partner in this, it’s not just a one-off project.
What are some common insights you’ve gleaned this year, working with such different clients and projects?
Bram: By creating a shared vision of the future for our clients, we’re bringing stakeholders together so that they have a common understanding: “this is where we want to land in the long term.” This is also super useful for directing shorter-term innovation, too. As foresight-driven innovation practitioners we should avoid staying in our ivory tower and saying, “you need to go for the horizon 3 [very long-term future] crazy innovations.” But we do want to show that there really is true value in creating that vision, of answering the question of, “where do we see ourselves landing?” Then we bring clients “back to today” and work with them to identify the steps that will take them there.
Without a future vision, companies and teams are always looking from today’s perspective. But with that long-term vision, it’s easier to imagine how we might arrive at a larger opportunity in the future. That is really helpful and one of the biggest value drivers of foresight.
We should also always look beyond what is top of mind for our clients. I think that is where we can create the biggest value. For example, recently I was at a workshop on biodiversity loss, exploring what new business opportunities may arise from that. But we also explore questions such as, “how should we update our current business model, our current ways of working?” This topic, declining biodiversity, is not really top of mind at the moment because we’re very much focused on climate change and global warming. But biodiversity loss is also where we should be playing and something we should be making clients aware of. To identify and focus on the next things and not keep surfing on current trends.
What advice would you give clients as 2023 takes off?
Bram: What is crucial is that foresight units don’t stop with being inspirational. They need to work on being impactful. They must connect with the stakeholders who should use their insights. They must make sure that they are part of the right conversations, and that they own their part in innovation, that the handover of their hard-won insights is done properly. This is still a key area for improvement for many companies: making sure that those foresight insights that have been gathered find a space within traditional corporate processes.
How do you see Strategic Foresight evolving in the coming years?
Bram: Though there is some uncertainty, I see it evolving in two ways: on the one hand it could become a specific unit within a company, just as you would have marketing or corporate strategy. On the other hand – and I think it might evolve more like this – foresight becomes a capability that any part of the organization should have. Foresight is so relevant for so many parts of the organization: HR, marketing, strategy, innovation. I see it becoming a capability of each organizational unit. I also hope that it becomes part of typical management programs. That’s already happening, so it would become less and less new, which would be a good thing – but then we need to step up our game! We need to make sure that it’s not just something cool and new, but also very useful. With increasing uncertainty, then it becomes more and more relevant for every part of the organization to have at least some kind of foresight capabilities. Reach out to Bram to learn more.
The interviews have been edited and condensed for clarity.
Your contact at Rohrbeck Heger: Bram Roosens Senior Consultant broosens@rohrbeckheger.com LinkedIn
In conversion with Philipp Maron, our strategic foresight expert on what’s set to impact business this year
By Bhavana Sawant and Emily Phillips
Philipp Maron is a Senior Consultant at Rohrbeck Heger. He leads complex projects, overseeing their management, communicating with clients, and ensuring that all deliverables and tasks are performed properly and are of the best quality. Philipp supports his teams as a sounding board and also conducts research interviews to better understand the industries and issues at hand.
We sat down with Philipp and asked him to reflect on his own experiences over the last few months. What commonalities does he observe from client work across multiple industries? What advice would he share for strategy and innovation professionals? What topics and trends will move the world in 2023? And what might the future hold for strategic foresight practice?
Skip to the final part of our three-part series of interviews with one of our experts in the field of foresight and innovation at Rohrbeck Heger.
Tell us about the projects you’ve worked on this past year.
Philipp: My projects are all about foresight-driven innovation: creating future scenarios and using them to derive, explore and understand future customer pain points. Through this we then identify and validate new business opportunities. As we navigate through different projects, we need to ensure that foresight-driven innovation can integrate and align with our clients’ existing innovation and corporate strategy.
I am currently chiefly leading projects with technical clients from industrial and automation environments— the industry leaders in their markets. Quite a few of my projects have focused on the future of intralogistics, specifically what warehouse systems and technology could look like in 2030. I’ve been working in factory automation, exploring future opportunities in the fields of agriculture, greenhouse technology, vertical farming, and asking the question: how will we feed the world in the age of climate crisis, labor shortage, and supply chain issues?
In addition to manufacturing and logistics, my work also focuses on different facets of the mobility industry. A recent project explored the future of electric vehicle battery recycling; currently thousands of batteries are integrated into cars every day, but what are we going to do with these same batteries in 10 to 15 years when it’s time to recycle? And with another client, we’re exploring the future of software-defined vehicles in the automotive industry. For the organizations that are certifying cars, checking for security, and even conducting driver’s license tests: how will their roles change in the next 15 years?
That’s quite a lot of varied projects and industries! What are some common key insights from the mix of projects you’ve worked on?
Philipp: From a content perspective, many of our clients are all facing similar topics and similar uncertainties. For example, the metaverse and the virtualization of services. That’s a topic I’ve encountered two or three times in different versions this year. It’s a thing that people are talking about, but have no clue as to how to effectively use it or rather, make sense of it. So, how does it make sense for an organization? That’s where we step in.
More and more clients today are wanting to gain a better understanding of the future needs of their customers — be it B2C or B2B. This is surely a great indication of a rise in customer-centric design and developments. For the best results, our clients need to listen carefully to consumer inputs.
What has your work this past year shown you about the value of strategic foresight methodology?
Philipp: Scenarios really help people to do a kind of “time travel” and imagine themselves in the future, helping them to think: “What will we need? What do we want to have in place in fifteen years? And in the end, what do we need to do to achieve it?” This is what we call back-casting—a very important and valuable element of our work.
In the end, what we want to do is create opportunities that are robust and will work in different alternative futures. For this, the whole topic of opportunity assessment is absolutely crucial and is becoming more and more critical. Clients want to conduct more data-driven and evidence-based decision making. This creates a higher degree of complexity, but if conducted properly, it also creates a lot of trust. Then, when clients are really convinced that this is the right opportunity to pursue, they can push this internally. It’s easier to convince other stakeholders, and in the end, really realize what we have created together.
What advice would you give your clients as they head into 2023?
Philipp: I would advise clients to trust the process. We are well aware of those feelings of uncertainty and lack of trustworthiness. We’ve learned this year that our process comes with a special complexity due to several levels of abstract information. So sometimes it feels like, “It all sounds so complex, and I don’t have a clue where this is headed.” But this is not the first time we have done this. Trying to manage uncertainty can feel like steering a small boat in the vastness of the ocean. Nevertheless, so far, we have always reached the harbor safely. We know what kind of challenges are coming, we’re trying to do our best to help you through. And we also know that in the end, interesting and surprising results are coming out of it. So it really helps to say, “Let’s trust the process.”
What does it look like when you trust the process?
Philipp: During one of the workshops this year we had a moment when a key stakeholder said, “I’m going to kill this scenario because I think it’s rubbish and it’s not going to happen in the end.” But then, during our process, we shared some examples as inspiration that could guide us into this future direction. And the stakeholder was so surprised that (in this case) a particular AI capability already exists, that he relented, admitting: “If this has all developed in just the last two years, and we’re thinking 15 years ahead, what else could be possible?” Afterwards he told us, “Okay, sometimes we just need to trust the process and see where it’s heading.”
How do you see strategic foresight evolving in the coming years?
Philipp: I personally hope that the strategic foresight approach gains significant attention in the next few years. We all recognize that the times we are living in are more dynamic than ever. A lot is changing, and no one person can say for sure how all these changes and developments—in China, in the US, in Europe, etc.—will look in the end. But exploring the big picture and opening up our minds to assess plausible futures is powerful, made even more so when you leverage data. What will the big picture be, and how will this shape our everyday life? Asking these questions are key for future success. The whole topic of being more aware of uncertainty and trying to somehow manage uncertainty will become more and more important for all kinds of organizations, from governments to industry to B2C service providers.
Whether the industry is factory automation, intralogistics, or vertical farming, strategic foresight helps organizations prepare for an uncertain future by building resilient, robust strategies. The Rohrbeck Heger team is prepared to guide innovation and strategy teams to assess the complexity of many interwoven trends, from increasing regulations, to a focus on health and well-being, to AI and other technological shifts. Reach out to Philipp to learn more.
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